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Bhrigu
Vooriki Bewarse
Username: Bhrigu
Post Number: 3096
Registered: 11-2004
Posted From: 148.87.1.171
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 14, 2005 - 5:22 pm: |    |
>> Headquartered at the CIA (news - web sites) in Langley, Va., but independent of the spy agency
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Sollu
Bewarse
Username: Sollu
Post Number: 1684
Registered: 03-2004
Posted From: 144.160.130.16
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 14, 2005 - 5:14 pm: | |
ayithe 6 years h1 chesi india chekkeyatam better annamata |
Ranga
Bewarse
Username: Ranga
Post Number: 1687
Registered: 03-2004
Posted From: 65.208.22.26
Rating: 
Votes: 1 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 14, 2005 - 5:12 pm: | |
Appudu $1 = Rs.1 Mama |
Vytwo
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Vytwo
Post Number: 42
Registered: 01-2005
Posted From: 144.160.5.25
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 14, 2005 - 5:02 pm: | |
hoping mamma dani kosame. |
Ranga
Bewarse
Username: Ranga
Post Number: 1686
Registered: 03-2004
Posted From: 65.208.22.26
Rating:
Votes: 3 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 14, 2005 - 4:33 pm: | |
By the year 2020, China and India will be vying with the United States for global economic supremacy, the nation's top intelligence analysts predict, and al-Qaeda will have withered away - only to be replaced by smaller, more splintered but equally deadly groups of terrorists.
The National Intelligence Council issued its once-every-five-year look at the future of the globe Thursday, contrasting optimism about dramatic global economic growth with concern that the same cyberpathways fueling economic development are also hastening the spread of violent, radical Islam.
"It's going to be a very bumpy ride," council Vice Chairman David Gordon said.
Headquartered at the CIA (news - web sites) in Langley, Va., but independent of the spy agency, the council coordinates the production of intelligence reports that combine the views of all 15 of the nation's intelligence agencies. In 2002, the council, then with a different membership, concluded in a National Intelligence Estimate, now largely discredited, that Iraq (news - web sites) had weapons of mass destruction.
Rather than locking itself into a single prediction of what the world will look like in 2020, the council considered four hypothetical scenarios:
• A world dominated by Asian economic expansion;
• A world in which the United States shapes and organizes global change;
• The rise of a new Islamic Caliphate - an international Islamic authority capable of challenging Western norms and values;
• A "cycle of fear" scenario in which aggressive responses to terror threats lead to increasingly intrusive security measures, "possibly introducing an Orwellian world."
Much of the council's outlook for the world in 15 years is optimistic, however.
"What we tried to avoid is what you often get from the intelligence community, which is nothing but gloom and doom," council Chairman Robert Hutchings said.
The world economy will likely be 80% larger in 2020 than it was in 2000, and average income will be 50% higher. While the United States will retain its role as the world's dominant economy and military power, China and India, the world's two most populous countries, will see their clout grow substantially, the council predicts.
"In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the 'American Century,' the 21st century may be seen as a time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own," the council writes in its report, Mapping the Global Future. "A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and military power for both countries."
Along with that growth will come increasing dangers as China's and India's military power expands. The report cites the India-Pakistan conflict and tension between China and Taiwan as two areas where miscalculation could lead to costly wars. In general, the council says the risk of great-power conflict is lower than at any time in the past century, but that as China, India and other growing powers improve their weaponry, the world's most powerful nations may be increasingly tempted to engage in pre-emptive war.
Rapid growth and the ease of international travel and communication will make security threats much harder for U.S. intelligence to spot, the council warns.
The council, whose members have access to the most sensitive intelligence data, predicts that by 2020, al-Qaeda will be superseded by smaller but equally violent Islamic groups. The same information-technology boom contributing to growth in China and India will help spread radical Islamic ideology, the council warns, and "enable the terrorist threat to become increasingly decentralized."
The council deliberately timed the release of its report to come after the presidential election, and the group avoided implying approval or disapproval of any current U.S. policy. The council agrees with the Bush administration that democracy will likely spread in "key Middle Eastern countries" now under repressive regimes. But the report warns that the advance of democracy in Southeast Asia and some former Soviet states could be "partially reversed."
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=67 6&ncid=676&e=8&u=/usatoday/20050114/ts_usatoday/pr edictionindiachinawillbeeconomicgiants |
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