| Author |
Message |
    
Robertdeniro
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Robertdeniro
Post Number: 109
Registered: 02-2021
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, March 03, 2022 - 12:18 pm: |
|
ISWH became BLQC anta kada... any hopes of quick movement now? |
Nalla_baalu
Censor Bewarse
Username: Nalla_baalu
Post Number: 127032
Registered: 06-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, February 24, 2022 - 12:49 pm: |
|
Rocks Annai GDRX inka undha ?
Aug 11th 2011 weight -- 84 kg; Aug 11th 2012 weight -- 88 kg; Aug 11th 2013 weight -- 80 kg; July 2015 -- 90 kilos (5'10")
|
Spy
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Spy
Post Number: 1205
Registered: 07-2018
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, January 13, 2022 - 9:01 pm: |
|
Medical_miracle:
Tech stocks are richly valued….yields rise means less returns anattu..so, investors moved from tech to value stocks..
Ee Theory gurunchi ekuvaga think cheyakunda logic adi ani follow ayipota… |
Medical_miracle
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Medical_miracle
Post Number: 3200
Registered: 08-2020
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, January 10, 2022 - 11:15 am: |
|
treasury yields perigithe indices enduku paduthunnayi? |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3895
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Saturday, January 08, 2022 - 12:19 pm: |
|
Next week on global Wall Street:
APAC
1. BOK Bank of Korea rate decision
2. TSMC Earnings
3. Economic Data Dump- China Trade Data, Australia Retail Sales, South Korea Employment Data, Japan PPI, India Inflation and Trade Ratings.
EMEA
1. Geopolitics in focus - Russia/ Kasakhstan, Nato Meetings Russia/Ukraine
2. Natural Gas Prices
3. Germany's new central bank chief - Joachim Nagal
AMERICAS
1. Consumer Price Index - 7.1 expected
2. Senate Banking Committee Hearings - Tuesday - Powell and Thursday Lail Brainerd
3. Earnings Season Kicks off - Delta, Black Rock, JP Morgan etc |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3894
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 6:46 pm: |
|
Consumer Credit up big in November
Consumer credit increased by $39.9 bln in November. The prior month saw a downward revision to $16.1 bln from $16.9 bln.
The key takeaway from the report is that increase in consumer credit in November was the largest monthly increase since December 2010.
Revolving credit increased $19.8 bln to $1.037 trln.
Nonrevolving credit increased $20.1 bln to $3.377 trln.
In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.0%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 23.4%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.2%. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3893
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 3:13 pm: |
|
GameStop says "game on" for crypto and NFT division, but endeavor brings on new set of risks (137.42 +6.39)
The wild ride that is GameStop's (GME) stock is in full swing today following a report from the Wall Street Journal that highlighted the company's cryptocurrency and NFT (non-fungible token) aspirations. The knee-jerk reaction catapulted shares higher by as much as 30% after yesterday's close, but a large portion of those gains have since been wiped out. Sudden moves of this magnitude are not uncommon for this "meme stock" with a very high short interest sitting at about 13% of the total float.
Undoubtedly, short covering played a significant role in the initial burst higher. However, there is also some potential fundamental value to this development. Determining that value from a financial standpoint is a very difficult task given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin is currently down nearly 40% from its highs) and the infancy of NFTs. With that in mind, here are a few over-arching takeaways from this accelerating evolution for GME:
To avoid becoming another Blockbuster Video as physical game discs fade away, GME must align itself with where the gaming industry is heading. There is virtually no doubt that digital downloads of games and in-game purchasing of virtual items will continue to rise. Therefore, digital currencies and NFTs -- which use blockchain technology to record ownership of virtual items -- seem to be a natural fit for the gaming industry.
Over the past year, GME has dramatically shaken up its leadership team as it implements this major digital transformation. Ryan Cohen, co-founder of Chewy (CHWY), the leading online pet food and supply company, became Chairman of the Board; while Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero came over from Amazon (AMZN) to become CEO and CFO, respectively. In our view, the changes at the top significantly improve GME's odds of successfully executing this turnaround.
The executives wasted little time in carrying out the new strategy with GME aggressively hiring new NFT and Ethereum specialists to help build a Web 3.0 gaming unit. In fact, the WSJ article doesn't come as a surprise because reports surfaced in October that GME was looking to fill these new roles. Furthermore, during the Q3 earnings call on December 8, Furlong affirmed that the company is indeed exploring opportunities in blockchain, NFTs, and Web 3.0 gaming.
One certainty is that it's going to take time for this transition to unfold and for GME's financial results to improve. The Q3 earnings report, which featured a much worse-than-expected loss per share of ($1.39), offered a stark reminder of how tumultuous and volatile this transition will be. By not offering financial guidance and not fielding questions during the earnings call, this point was really hammered home.
That unpredictability won't improve with increased exposure to highly-volatile cryptocurrencies and NFTs, creating a different kind of risk for GME and its investors.
In our view, GME's vision to develop a crypto and NFT division is compelling and it offers the company an opportunity to reinvent itself. However, this story is still fraught with high risks from both a trading and fundamental perspective. At this stage, we believe it's wise for most investors to take a wait-and-see approach, especially as the market continues to punish more speculative assets. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3892
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 11:08 am: |
|
It's mostly more of the same in today's market action. Treasury yields are rising, growth stocks and mega-cap stocks are under selling pressure, and value stocks are exhibiting relative strength.
Rising real rates -- and worries that they will keep rising -- have been a headwind for the stock market all week. The 10-yr note yield is up fiver basis points today to 1.78% and up 27 basis points for the week.
The pace of change has been more concerning than the level, although the level is now in play as a move above 1.75% seemingly cracks the door open for a push to 2.00%.
This move fits with signs of a more assertive Fed looking to tame inflation; and today's move follows a December employment report that was weak on nonfarm payrolls (199,000) but stronger than expected with average hourly earnings growth (+0.6%). |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3891
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 10:28 am: |
|
Positions updates:
Sonos (SONO) is trading higher after the USITC (trade commission) confirmed that Google has infringed on five different Sonos patents, banning imports of some smart speakers, phones and laptops. Google can still appeal the decision to the top patent court. Google could also potentially put in place workarounds, while a royalty deal is also possible or potentially likely down the road. The strength of Sonos' patents (and its software) seems to be a cherry on top for this premium speaker company. AS a result, I continue to like owning this tock at a very reasonable 11x forward EBITDA, a discount to most other tech hardware stocks.
Personalis (PSNL) guided Q4 revenue slightly above estimates. Biopharma revenue grew 102% (+26% ex-Natera) was offset by a 58% decline from its business with the VA. The company launched its tumor-informed liquid biopsy assay, NeXT Personal (molecular residual disease) last month, which was a big milestone. The company guided for more than 50% revenue growth in its oncology business in 2022. The company also announced a $100M at the money offering earlier this week. The stock caught an upgrade at BofA this morning. This remains one of the cheaper healthcare/tech diagnostics companies trading at only 4x forward sales. I thin it is a potential takeout candidate, although that doesn't necessarily justify a thesis. I bought a small position in late March 2020 and still have half of that position left that I plan to hold.
A number of positive broker recommendations for positions this morning:
The Trade Desk (TTD) upgraded at Jefferies, target to $105 from $100. Remain one of my core longs. Stock closed at its 200-DMA yesterday which represents ~68x forward EBITDA. Buying this stock on pullbacks has worked since the IPO. The company continues to take market share in the programmatic advertising market, helped by a strong position in connected TV.
Coursera (COUR) upgraded at Goldman with a $32 target. This stock has gotten too cheap at 5x sales. Out of favor with the rest of the software IPOs that benefited from the pandemic. I continue to like it for the University degree programs and big tech certifications that should continue to drive growth.
Delta (DAL) upgraded at BofA, target to $48. During the Trader Strategy meeting yesterday, I noted that this stock is likely due for another bounce back toward $50 over the intermediate term. Demand for travel should remain very strong going forward (after this Omicron wave dissipates in the coming weeks)
Airbnb (ABNB) resumed with a Buy at Jefferies, $220 target. Noted on the Trader Strategy meeting that this is a pioneer/leader in travel worth buying while out of the favor.
Expedia (EXPE) resumed with a Hold at Jefferies, $200 target
Planet Labs (PL) initiated with a Buy rating and $10 target at both Piper Sandler and Wedbush. I am looking to continue accumulating this tock while it is totally out of favor. The company will present at a Needham Conference at 2:00 PM on Monday.
GoodRx (GDRX) initiated with a Buy at Goldman. This stock fell to an effective record low yesterday, giving the stock a still not "cheap" ~38x forward EV/EBITDA multiple. Clearly, the pandemic continues to weigh on normal healthcare utilization. Tragically, the ramifications of the pandemic are devastating in terms of the amount of cancer that won't be detected early enough, for one example. Hopefully, the healthcare system will normalize in the coming quarters/years, which will be a tailwind for GDRX.
GDRX, COUR and PL all represent stocks I own that deliver more economic good than they are delivering for shareholders at the moment. If business momentum can hold up in the coming quarters/years, I think investors will start to realize and further appreciate the value they add to the economy.
Quidel (QDEL) guided Q4 EPS well above consensus as demand for its COVID testing business was off the charts during the Delta and now Omicron waves. One would think that strong results were entirely expected, so I am not surprised to see a muted response. The government has pledged 500M tests and hopefully this Omicron wave is somewhat of a crescendo, so there may be some forward-looking traders looking to fade this stock despite the cheap valuation of ~8x EBITDA. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3890
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 10:27 am: |
|
December payrolls disappoint, but unemployment rate doesn't
December payrolls growth was quite weak, but that shouldn't remain the case as we get past the Omicron hurdle. The unemployment rate fell to an astounding 3.9%, although the labor force participation rate did not improve. It held steady at 61.9%. Average hourly earnings were up a stronger than expected 0.6%.
The key takeaway from the report is that it shows the Fed is close to meeting its objective of maximum employment and that wage growth in a tight labor market risks feeding into more persistent inflation pressures that will need to be addressed with a tighter policy position.
December nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 (Briefing.com consensus 440,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 365,000 from 425,000 in November. November nonfarm payrolls revised to 249,000 from 210,000. October nonfarm payrolls revised to 648,000 from 546,000.
December private sector payrolls increased by 211,000 (Briefing.com consensus 420,000). November private sector payrolls revised to 270,000 from 235,000. October private sector payrolls revised to 714,000 from 628,000.
December unemployment rate was 3.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%), versus 4.2% in November. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 31.7% of the unemployed versus 32.5% in November. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 7.3%, versus 7.7% in November.
December average hourly earnings increased 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) versus a 0.4% increase in November. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.7%, versus 5.1% for the 12 months ending in November.
The average workweek in December was 34.7 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.8), versus a downwardly revised 34.7 hours (from 34.8 hours) in November. Manufacturing workweek decreased 0.1 hours to 40.3 hours. Factory overtime decreased 0.1 hours to 3.2 hours
The labor force participation rate held steady at 61.9%.
The employment-population ratio increased to 59.5% from 59.3% in November. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3889
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 10:27 am: |
|
Futures market leaning modestly higher in front of employment report
Treasury market steady in front of employment report; 10-yr below 1.75%
STM up after raising Q4 revenue guidance
GME surges on report of new NFT business
SONO wins court ruling regarding GOOG patent infringement claims
QDEL gains after guiding Q4 revenues well above consensus
Ratings changes for: BAX, BOX, BP, CMG, COUR, DAL, DISCA, DOV, ANF, AWK, GOOS, CMA, DUK, FITB, and GNRC
Oil futures flirting with $80/bbl |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3888
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, January 07, 2022 - 10:27 am: |
|
Futures pointing to slightly higher open ahead of December jobs report
US equity futures are trading slightly higher. The markets are looking ahead today to the December Jobs report after ADP showed a better-than-expected report on Wednesday. Investors will be looking to see if there are any clues to see if the Omicron variant is impacting jobs, as cases first started to show increases in December. President Biden will speak about this jobs report at 10:45 ET, according to the White House schedule. Tech stocks will be in focus based on changes in bond yields. Omicron cases continue to make records in the US, but health experts expect cases to peak in some areas soon.
In Europe, markets were mixed. December Eurozone CPI +5% versus +4.9% prior.
Asia markets were also mixed. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3887
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 9:59 am: |
|
Initial claims running at pre-pandemic levels (which is good)
Initial claims for the week ending January 1 increased by 7,000 to 207,000 and continuing claims for the week ending December 25 increased by 36,000 to 1.754 million.
The key takeaway is that the latest data didn't disrupt the idea that the labor market is tight and that initial claims are running at pre-pandemic levels, which at the time were thought to be quite low.
The four-week moving average for initial claims increased by 4,750 to 204,500.
The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 61,250 to 1,798,750. That is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020.
The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending December 18 was 1,722,352, a decrease of 199,869 from the previous week. In the same week a year ago, there were 20,155,922 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3886
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 9:11 am: |
|
we are finally seeing multiple contraction in Software stocks trading at 20-50x revenues. This is a trade that has been defined more by momentum than fundamentals.
Hopefully what this aggressive pullback will allow is more conservative pricing of Tech IPOs
we see even further declines in momentum stocks and SPACs. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3885
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 9:08 am: |
|
Futures market in mixed position; Nasdaq 100 futures point negative
Market in wait-and-see mode to see if buy-the-dip trade prevails
Treasury market a focal point for stock market's behavior
10-yr note yield hits 1.75%; 2-yr note yield up to 0.86%
Impact of Omicron variant felt in staffing shortages across industries
Oil futures pushing $80/bbl
Busy day for econ data with initial claims, trade balance, factory orders, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index reports on tap |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3884
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 9:07 am: |
|
Futures pointing to mixed open
US equity futures are mixed this morning. Stocks fell yesterday and bond yields went higher after the FOMC minutes showed that many participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode. The continued push higher in yields has been like pouring salt in the wound for the growth stocks, which had already been dealing with persistent selling pressure. Fed funds futures show a 73% chance of a rate increase in March, according to CNBC. Omicron cases across the US continue to set records.
In Europe, markets were lower. November Germany Factory Orders (yr/yr) were +1.3% vs. +0.1% prior
Asia markets were also lower (FOMC minutes came out after Europe and Asia were already closed). |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3883
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, January 06, 2022 - 9:07 am: |
|
Gudivada04:enti ee ekapathrabhinayam!!
 |
Gudivada04
Bewarse Legend
Username: Gudivada04
Post Number: 46103
Registered: 09-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 5:25 pm: |
|
Rao garu enti ee ekapathrabhinayam!! That too aa essays enti?
Ivvala correction beginning emo with hawkish fed tone. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3882
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 5:11 pm: |
|
Closing Stock Market Summary
A mixed market turned into a weak market on Wednesday after the FOMC Minutes highlighted a more aggressive stance on policy normalization. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 both dropped 3.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.1% after setting an all-time high in early action.
Briefly, the Minutes from the December meeting showed that participants thought it would be appropriate to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet at a faster pace than during the previous normalization period. Cited reasons included the fact that the balance sheet is bigger this time around and that the economic outlook is stronger.
What's more, the participants judged that the commencement of a balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to after the first rate hike, versus waiting nearly two years after the first hike in the last normalization episode.
Growth stocks extended intraday losses, as the 10-yr yield topped 1.70% in the wake of the report, while value stocks gave up intraday gains. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, with real estate (-3.2%), information technology (-3.1%), and communication services (-2.9%) each falling about 3.0%.
The consumer staples (-0.03%), utilities (-0.1%), energy (-0.1%), and materials (-0.1%) sectors closed fractionally lower amid increased selling pressure into the close.
The market might have been caught off guard by the Fed's hawkish tone regarding the balance sheet, but the readiness to hike rates shouldn't come as a surprise. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability for a rate hike in March increased to 67.8% today, versus 59.7% yesterday and 27.1% one month ago.
Rate-hike expectations firmed up today after the release of a stronger-than-expected December ADP Employment Change report, which estimated an addition of 807,000 jobs to private sector payrolls last month (Briefing.com consensus 425,000).
The 2-yr yield, which tracks expectations for the fed funds rate, rose seven basis points to 0.83%. The 10-yr yield settled the session four basis points higher at 1.71%, feeding into expectations for a run-up to 2.00%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.1% to 96.20. WTI crude futures rose 1.1%, or $0.82, to $77.82/bbl.
All in all, the balance-sheet commentary, coupled with higher interest rates, was presumably an excuse for investors to double down on the growth-stock selling and take profits in the value stocks.
Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:
ADP estimated that 807,000 jobs were added to private sector payrolls in December (Briefing.com consensus 425,000), up from a downwardly revised 505,000 (from 534,000) in November.
The preliminary IHS Markit Services PMI for December decreased to 57.6 from 58.0 in the final reading for November.
The MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 5.6% on a weekly basis.
Crude oil inventories had a weekly draw of 2.144 mln barrels, which was the EIA's sixth draw in six weeks.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for December, the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, the Trade Balance for November, and Factory Orders for November on Thursday. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3881
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 3:24 pm: |
|
Market Briefing: FOMC Minutes drive Treasury yields higher and growth stocks lower
The major indices have dropped to new session lows in the wake of the FOMC Minutes for the December meeting. The precipitant has been the rise in the 10-yr yield above 1.70%, although short rates are moving higher, too, as the minutes conveyed a more hawkish tone (in a relative sense anyway compared to the uber dovish position that dominated for much of 2021).
Treasuries saw some knee-jerk selling in response to the contention that "Many participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode."
The continued push higher in yields has been like pouring salt in the wound for the growth stocks, which had already been dealing with persistent selling pressure.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 1.6%; the S&P 500 information technology sector is down 1.8%; the Russell 3000 Growth Index is down 1.1%; and the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is down 1.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.2%; the S&P 500 is down 0.8%; the Russell 2000 is down 0.9%; and the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.9%. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3880
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 3:23 pm: |
|
Simply Good Foods posts healthy quarterly results, but softer margin outlook shakes out some investors (40.19 -2.15)
Simply Good Foods (SMPL), a maker of diet-based snacks and shakes, delivered a solid beat-and-raise quarterly report, highlighted by a 22% jump in 1Q22 net sales. Increased foot traffic across the mass channel and at convenience stores, combined with product price increases, fueled the company's upside performance. However, shares are trading sharply lower on the session despite the better-than-expected results and the bump in FY22 net sales growth guidance. The weakness can partially be attributed to some profit-taking following a near 20% run higher in the stock since the beginning of December. However, fundamental reasons are also in play, including SMPL's expectation that supply chain costs will remain elevated throughout its fiscal year, further pressuring margins.
To combat supply chain cost inflation, SMPL pushed through price increases in mid-September, which have been widely absorbed by consumers. Demand for its Atkins and Quest brands was resilient, as evidenced by both brands outperforming their respective subsegments. Specifically, retail takeaway for Atkins was 7.7% compared to 4.4% for the weight management segment overall. For Quest, retail takeaway in measured channels came in at 36.2%, surpassing the active nutrition segment growth of 30.3%.
Bolstered by higher household penetration for its products, improving mobility/shopper traffic, and additional price increases, SMPL lifted its FY22 net sales growth guidance to 12-14% from its prior guidance of 8-10%. As the company progresses through Q2, it expects to sustain the momentum it achieved in Q1, forecasting retail takeaway growth to remain stable.
This positive outlook, though, is tarnished by a couple items that are creating angst among investors.
First, during the earnings conference call, CEO Joseph Scalzo voiced concern that the recent surge in COVID-19 cases could slow the return-to-work trend. That could have a negative impact on sales of products such as protein shakes and bars, which many people consume at work. Scalzo noted that while Q1 bar consumption growth of 3.3% was inline with recent trends, it still remains below historic levels due to the work-from-home shift.
Second, and perhaps more concerning, is that SMPL doesn't see any relief on the horizon in terms of supply chain disruptions and the spike in ingredient costs. Consequently, it cut its FY22 gross margin outlook, projecting a yr/yr contraction of about 250 bps. Previously, the company had guided for a "modest gross margin contraction." SMPL does intend to implement addition pricing actions, but they won't be enough to fully mitigate the cost pressures.
Overall, SMPL is performing quite well and its assortment of healthy snack alternatives are on trend. Unfortunately, the all-too-familiar supply chain and inflationary headwinds are casting a cloud over its outlook, providing investors with a reason to lock in gains on a stock that's made an impressive move. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3878
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 1:29 pm: |
|
Sector Briefing: Technology (171.81 -1.85)
Four sectors trade in negative territory, including top-weighted technology (-1.1%), which sits only ahead of real estate (-1.6%) on today's leaderboard.
Key factors driving today's performance include:
Weak showing from top components like Apple (AAPL 179.16, -0.54, -0.3%), Microsoft (MSFT 321.66, -7.35, -2.2%), and NVIDIA (NVDA 284.10, -8.80, -3.0%) and losses in roughly half of the remaining components of the sector.
Slight outperformance among chipmakers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index trades ahead of the tech sector, but it is still down 0.4% as 2/3 of the group's components sit in the red. The SOX Index has narrowed this week's gain to 1.1% versus a 1.2% week-to-date loss in the tech sector.
Notable movers:
Enphase Energy (ENPH 165.30, -12.98, -7.3%): weakest performer in the sector, falling past its 200-day moving average (175.03). Stock was downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $187 target at BofA Securities.
Salesforce (CRM 233.68, -14.55, -5.9%): falling to its lowest level since June. UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.
Adobe (ADBE 527.43, -26.58, -4.8%): falling past its December low to its lowest level since early June. UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.
AMD (AMD 139.91, -4.51, -3.1%): falling past its 50-day moving average (143.28) to a two-week low.
NVIDIA (NVDA 284.10, -8.80, -3.0%): trading near yesterday's low.
Microsoft (MSFT 321.66, -7.35, -2.2%): slipping toward its December low (317.25).
Broadcom (AVGO 657.93, -13.00, -1.9%): surrendering yesterday's gain.
Oracle (ORCL 87.48, -1.36, -1.5%): slipping back toward its 200-day moving average (86.38).
Apple (AAPL 179.16, -0.54, -0.3%): slipped to Monday's low before narrowing its loss.
Seagate (STX 116.77, +0.75, +0.7%): rising to a fresh record high.
HP (HPQ 39.53, +0.33, +0.9%): rising to a fresh record high.
Visa (V 223.74, +1.28, +0.6%): rising toward its 200-day moving average (225.42).
Mastercard (MA 380.51, +5.12, +1.4%): hit its best level since early August before narrowing its gain.
Micron (MU 98.32, +1.98, +2.1%): rising past its high from 2000 to a fresh record.
Qualcomm (QCOM 193.19, +5.96, +3.2%): rising to a fresh record high.
Intel (INTC 55.36, +2.22, +4.2%): best performer in the sector, rallying back above its 200-day moving average (54.91) to its best level since late October. Northland Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $62 target. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3877
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 1:28 pm: |
|
Market Briefing: Value continues to take lead as growth lags
The stock market continues to operate in a mixed mode with growth stocks underperforming value. Concerns about valuations, rising interest rates, and crowded positioning are the basis for the underperformance of growth stocks in early 2022.
That weakness has driven the Nasdaq Composite below its 50-day moving average (15,620) and it has weighed on the S&P 500 information technology sector, which is down 1.0% this week versus a 0.4% gain for the S&P 500 and a 1.2% gain for the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP).
In other words, "the market" isn't weak even if the growth stocks are. The energy sector and financial sector have surged this week, gaining 7.8% and 4.1%, respectively. The industrials sector is up 1.6%.
It's a reversal of leadership fortune from 2021 when growth stocks led the way, but what isn't different is the rotational quality of the bull market. Money is rotating out of growth and into value. Today is no different. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is down 0.8%, yet the Russell 3000 Value Index is up 0.6%.
What's also striking is that the CBOE Volatility Index has remained subdued in the face of the growth stock selling. It's flat today at 16.91 and down 1.8% for the week, suggesting that the weakness in the growth stocks might be thought of more as a rebalancing maneuver than anything that is going to be a killjoy for the broader market. That view is subject to change, but there isn't a true, fear-based resonance in the market at this juncture. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3876
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 8:25 am: |
|
Mixed disposition in futures market; Nasdaq 100 futures underperform
Growth trailing value by large margin to start the year
Omicron causing staffing issues across various industries
Republicans and Democrats said to be discussing possibility of additional COVID relief funding
BA up modestly on reports of possible purchase order from ALGT
BYND rallies on news of KFC deal
WMT gains after announcing plan to expand InHome delivery reach |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3875
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, January 05, 2022 - 8:14 am: |
|
Futures pointing to mixed open
US equity futures are trading mostly unchanged. Cases of the Omicron variant continue to surge across the US. The CDC declined to add a testing recommendation to its COVID-19 isolation guidelines. There continues to be several reports of staffing shortages having an adverse impact on the normal course of operations for many businesses, government agencies, and schools.
In Europe, markets were mostly higher. December Eurozone Markit Composite PMI 53.3 vs. 55.9 prior. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says his country will "ride out" this Omicron wave without shutting down.
Asia markets were mixed. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3874
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 2:46 pm: |
|
Sector Briefing: Technology (172.99 -2.53)
Five sectors trade in negative territory with top-weighted technology (-1.6%) sitting at the bottom of today's leaderboard.
Key factors driving today's performance include:
Weak showing from top components like Apple (AAPL 179.89, -2.12, -1.2%), Microsoft (MSFT 327.60, -7.15, -2.1%), and NVIDIA (NVDA 287.84, -13.37, -4.5%) and losses in roughly half of the sector's components keeping the sector at the bottom of today's leaderboard.
Underperformance among chipmakers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index hit a fresh record high before reversing. It is currently down 1.6% with all but four components trading in the red.
Notable movers:
Service Now (NOW 586.65, -43.49, -6.9%): weakest performer in the sector, falling for the fourth consecutive day to its 200-day moving average (586.54).
AMD (AMD 142.63, -7.61, -5.1%): weakest performer among chipmakers, falling back below its 50-day moving average (142.90). Company announced new products at CES.
NVIDIA (NVDA 287.84, -13.37, -4.5%): falling back below its 50-day moving average (295.67). Company made minor product line update announcements at CES.
Salesforce (CRM 246.30, -9.16, -3.6%): falling back below its 200-day moving average (253.65) back to its December low (245.25).
Adobe (ADBE 544.44, -19.93, -3.5%): nearing its December low (538.05).
PayPal (PYPL 189.27, -5.67, -2.9%): surrendering yesterday's gain.
Applied Materials (AMAT 156.34, -3.59, -2.2%): surrendering yesterday's gain.
Microsoft (MSFT 327.60, -7.15, -2.1%): falling for the fourth consecutive day past its 50-day moving average (332.70).
Apple (AAPL 179.89, -2.12, -1.2%): touched a fresh record before turning negative.
Visa (V 223.34, +1.91, +0.9%): climbed above its 200-day moving average (225.35) before falling back below that mark.
MasterCard (MA 375.26, +4.31, +1.2%): rising for the third consecutive day to its best level since early August.
Cognizant Tech (CTSH 91.51, +1.94, +2.2%): rallying to a fresh record high.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 16.87, +0.73, +4.5%): best performer in the sector, rising to its best level since late November. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $20 target. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3873
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 12:12 pm: |
|
Growth stocks struggle in follow-the-leader selling
Everybody didn't wake up today and say "it's time to sell my growth stocks because the 10-yr yield is pushing 1.70%," but somebody did and the move by that somebody confirmed that nagging feeling in others that they should probably do some selling of overvalued growth stocks, particularly the ones that aren't profitable, in what should be a rising interest rate environment in 2022.
In brief, the weakness in the growth stocks today has a follow-the-leader mentality to it, which fits a market that has embraced thematic trades. The theme right now seems to be that these stocks could be destined to underperform in 2022 due to rising interest rates.
There were some cracks in these same stocks yesterday while some of the mega-cap stocks were looking invincible, but the cracks have opened wider today with some selling of the mega-cap stocks and a knowingness that many of the smaller growth stocks ran to unjustified levels in 2021, and that, even with some experiencing sharp selloffs to end the year, they are still overvalued.
Conversely, while growth stocks are struggling, value stocks are outperforming, which is what one would expect to see in an environment of rising interest rates that is predicated in part on above-average economic growth and a knowingness that value stocks have trailed growth stocks for a long time.
The Russell 3000 Value Index is up 1.3% while the Russell 3000 Growth Index is down 0.7%. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3872
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 12:12 pm: |
|
Market Briefing: Mega-cap stocks fall; value stocks rise again
The stock market is mixed as the love for the mega-cap stocks yesterday has been questioned today; hence, the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.7%.
The lopsided market has two proximate causes:
The bump in long-term rates, which is undercutting many of the highly-valued growth stocks
An upbeat economic growth outlook despite the short-term effects of the Omicron variant
We can see the economic view today in the outperformance of the value stocks and the leadership of the cyclical sectors, which includes energy (+2.7%), financials (+2.5%), industrials (+1.9%), and materials (+1.3%). The Russell 3000 Value Index is up 0.9% while the Russell 3000 Growth Index is down 0.8% in a trade reminiscent of the rotational axis on which the 2021 stock market spun.
In turn, the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 259.92, -3.55, -1.4%) is down 1.4% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP 164.21, +1.32, +0.8%) is up 0.8%. Some of the mega-cap laggards include NVIDIA (NVDA 287.25, -13.96, -4.6%), Tesla (TSLA 1155.36, -44.42, -3.7%), Amazon.com (AMZN 3347.80, -60.29, -1.8%), and Microsoft (MSFT 330.08, -4.67, -1.8%).
The 10-yr note yield is at 1.67%, up four basis points from yesterday (and up 16 basis points since the start of 2022). The 2-yr note yield, though, is down two basis points to 0.77% as a comforting drop in the prices index for the December ISM Manufacturing report helped lower the temperature a little bit on rate-hike concerns.
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are down 0.2%. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3871
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 12:12 pm: |
|
Sector Briefing: Energy (59.21 +1.99)
Seven sectors trade in the green with the energy sector (+3.6%) trading comfortably ahead of its peers.
Key factors driving today's performance include:
Support from a higher price of oil. WTI crude is up $1.09, or 1.5%, at $77.17/bbl. Oil has climbed above its 50-day moving average (75.97) to its best level in nearly six weeks.
OPEC+ decision to increase output by 400,000 barrels in February.
Continuation of a strong start to January. The sector has already gained 6.7% this week versus an 0.8% week-to-date advance in the S&P 500 (+0.1%).
Notable movers:
Occidental Petroleum (OXY 33.72, +2.66, +8.5%): best performer in the sector, rallying to its best level in nearly two months.
Halliburton (HAL 25.74, +1.75, +7.3%): rising to a two-month high. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $30 target.
Hess (HES 81.42, +4.63, +6.1%): rallying past its 200-day (78.18) and 50-day (78.98) moving averages to a one-month high.
Marathon Oil (MRO 17.71, +0.84 +5.0%): rising to its best level since April 2019.
Devon Energy (DVN 47.84, +2.27, +5.0%): rising to a five-year high.
EOG Resources (EOG 95.66, +4.50, +5.0%): rising to its best level since mid-November.
ConocoPhillips (COP 76.58, +2.81, +3.8%): approaching its October high (77.98).
Exxon Mobil (XOM 65.79, +2.25, +3.5%): nearing its November high (66.38).
ONEOK (OKE 61.33, +1.34, +2.2%): rising toward its 50-day moving average (61.72).
Chevron (CVX 121.79, +2.53, +2.1%): rising to a two-year high.
Kinder Morgan (KMI 16.66, +0.31, +1.9%): rising to its best level since mid-November.
HollyFrontier (HFC 34.04, +0.17, +0.5%): weakest performer in the sector, climbed to a one-month high before surrendering its gain. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3870
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 12:11 pm: |
|
Pace of manufacturing activity slows in December; price index sees big dip
The December ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 58.7% (Briefing.com consensus 60.3%) versus 61.1% in November. A number above 50.0% is indicative of expansion. December marked the 19th straight month of expansion for the manufacturing sector, albeit at a slower pace.
The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that price pressures softened some, presumably due to improved supply chain conditions; however, supply concerns (and inflation worries) aren't going to fade away knowing that the Omicron variant is driving global staffing challenges.
The New Orders Index dropped to 60.4% from 61.5%.
The Prices Index fell to 68.2% from 82.4%.
The Backlog of Orders Index increased to 62.8% from 61.9%.
The Supplier Deliveries Index fell to 64.9% from 72.2% (meaning the pace of deliveries is slower, but not as slow as in November).
The Production Index decreased to 59.2% from 61.5%.
The New Export Orders Index slipped to 53.6% from 54.0%.
The Employment Index rose to 54.2% from 53.3%. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3868
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 9:37 am: |
|
Some early thoughts- 4800 sets up as the early battleground state
A relatively quiet overnight session that saw the S&P press to a record high 4807.50 at 6:15am.
Futures witnessed steady buying from the close of the U.S. markets until hitting that level. Volume was light but we did see markets in China, Australia, and the U.K. reopen, leading to a higher participation than what we saw on Monday.
Some sellers emerged leading S&P futures back to test the 4800 area for support. This sets up as the early battleground for bulls and bears.
The Nasdaq saw a brief dip at the open of European trade but, other than that 10-minute sell off, saw similar price action. The NQs rallied to 16560 at 6:15am before seeing sellers come back into play. The index is coming in to test the overnight lows (16484, 3:45am) which sets up as an early level to monitor.
European markets posted solid gains with the STOXX Europe 600 +0.9%. Cyclical groups including autos, industrials, travel/leisure, banks and energy led the way. Defensive plays, key leaders during the Santa Claus rally, continued to see light selling.
Treasury Yields are pressing higher with the 30-year pushing to 2.06%, testing its 200-sma for the first time since late October. The 10-year bolts to 1.67% and is eyeing up a test of the 52-week high of 1.67% set back in early April. The 5-year rallied to 1.39% and is at its highest level since the start of the pandemic. The debate behind the moves (inflation vs growth) will continue but it should bode well for the banking sector. Our FAS long is pushing above the 50-sma ($135) in early trade.
Crude is finding an early bid as it pushes above its 50-sma and is up 1.1% in early trade. Today, OPEC+ is widely expected to increase its production by 400K bpd for February. This should lead to a test of the 50-sma for support but black gold remains in a firm upward trend.
A relatively slow calendar once again. Some items we will watch today include the ISM Manufacturing release, vehicle sales, OPEC+, and President Biden's remarks on omicron. The latter should be interesting as I expect the president to try and downplay the severity of the illness for those who have been vaccinated. We will watch JETS and PEJ for any reaction.
Smart Global (SGH) reports earnings after the close. The Brazilian chipmaker will provide us early insight into the supply chain issues for semis. SGH shares have been on a tear since mid-December when it broke above the $62 level. Stifel was out saying it expected a strong set of results from the company which would provide further evidence of positive changes to the overall business and operating models. Still, we may see some profit taking ahead of tonight's results. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3867
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 9:37 am: |
|
Futures market stays with positive disposition
Major indices slated to start modestly higher
Daily COVID cases in U.S. top 1 million; 7-day average is highest in world
F advances as it plans to double F-150 Lightning production
T and VZ now saying they will delay 5G rollout for two weeks |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3866
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, January 04, 2022 - 9:36 am: |
|
Overnight Summary — Futures trading higher on the second day of 2022
US equity futures are trading higher following gains yesterday on the first trading day of 2022. Additional companies will report auto sales today following Tesla's (TSLA) strong Q4 numbers over the weekend. Omicron cases continue to rise across the U.S. as health officials predict that certain areas of the country will reach a peak later this month. Several businesses and schools are being impacted by staffing issues related to Omicron infections.
Asia markets were mixed. The December Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China was 50.9 vs. 49.9 prior. China's Yuzhou, which has a population of 1.3 million, was put on a partial lockdown due to coronavirus.
In Europe, markets are mostly higher. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3865
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, January 03, 2022 - 5:24 pm: |
|
Closing Stock Market Summary
The major indices had a great start to 2022 on Monday, featuring record closes in the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%). The Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%) and Russell 2000 (+1.2%) tied for the lead with 1.2% gains.
The outperformance of the Nasdaq was attributed to a 13.5% gain in Tesla (TSLA 1199.78, +143.00, +13.5%), which reported record Q4 deliveries, and sizable gains in Apple (AAPL 182.01, +4.44, +2.5%), Amazon.com (AMZN 3408.09, +73.75, +2.2%), and NVIDIA (NVDA 301.21, +7.10, +2.4%).
Apple became the first U.S. company to reach a $3.0 trillion market capitalization while Amazon and the small-caps may have adhered to the January effect. The latter is a view that beaten-down stocks outperform to begin the year with the conclusion of tax-loss selling pressure.
The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector, which is home to TSLA and AMZN, advanced 2.8%, but it was outdone by the energy sector (+3.1%) amid higher oil prices ($76.05/bbl, +0.76, +1.0%). The financials (+1.2%) and information technology (+1.2%) sectors followed suit, with the former keying off a big jump in longer-dated Treasury yields.
The mega-caps, to emphasize, made a huge difference for the large-cap indices since the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index increased just 0.1% and six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower. The materials (-1.4%), health care (-1.0%), and real estate (-1.0%) sectors each declined by at least 1.0%.
Reviewing Monday's economic data:
Total construction spending increased 0.4% month-over-month in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.6%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.2%) in October. Total private construction increased 0.6% month-over-month while total public construction spending decreased 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 9.3%.
The key takeaway from the report is the strength seen in new single-family construction, which is a reflection of the persistently strong housing demand amid a scarcity of supply in the existing home market.
The preliminary December IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI decreased to 57.7 from a revised final reading of 58.3 (from 57.8) in November.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the ISM Manufacturing Index for December and the JOLTS - Job Openings report for November on Tuesday. |
Andhravodu
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Andhravodu
Post Number: 3662
Registered: 04-2017
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, January 03, 2022 - 3:47 pm: |
|
Tesla kumming. stock konnollaki kamadhenuvu |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3864
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, January 03, 2022 - 2:37 pm: |
|
Small caps in the lead
The stock market has started the new month -- and new year -- on a familiar-looking note. The major indices have shown some resilience to selling interest, and have more of a risk-on position driving them.
To wit, the worst-performing sectors at the moment are the real estate (-2.1%), health care (-1.7%), utilities (-1.5%), and consumer staples (-0.9%) sectors. The best-performing sectors are the energy (+2.4%), consumer discretionary (+1.8%), financials (+1.1%), information technology (+0.5%), and communication services (+0.4%) sectors.
Tesla (TSLA 1165.52, +108.74, +10.5%) has been a key driver of the broader market, surging after reporting much better than expected deliveries for the fourth quarter.
Separately, small-cap stocks are in the lead today, which is not unusual in the early portion of a new year, as prior laggards driven by tax-loss selling pressure are identified as good rebound candidates. That understanding, along with the early outperformance of the energy and financial stocks, which have heavy representation in the Russell 2000, are pacing the small-cap outperformance.
Looking away from stocks, the Treasury market has come under some widespread selling pressure to begin the year. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 0.78%, but the 10-yr note yield is up 10 basis points to 1.61%. That move in long-term rates has exerted some pressure on some of the more highly-valued, unprofitable growth stocks, and is presenting a headwind of sorts for the broader market. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3863
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, January 03, 2022 - 2:36 pm: |
|
Tesla receiving a strong jolt after reporting impressive Q4 delivery numbers (1148.21 +91.43)
Tesla's (TSLA) resiliency is on display again this morning after the company reported electrifying Q4 delivery results that not only smashed analysts' expectations but also set a new company record. Undeterred by ongoing supply chain obstacles, total deliveries surged by 71% yr/yr to 308,000 vehicles, with Model 3 and Model Y leading the way. On a combined basis, TSLA delivered nearly 297,000 of those two vehicles, up 83% from a year earlier.
From a broader perspective, it's clear that consumer demand for electric vehicles (EVs) continued to strengthen as 2021 came to a close, providing TSLA and its counterparts with a powerful tailwind. This upswing was also illustrated by impressive December delivery reports from China-based EV makers NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV), which registered yr/yr growth of 50% and 181%, respectively. Along with sizable governmental tax credits, major advances in battery technology and more affordable price points have elevated EVs to the mainstream.
For TSLA, the Q4 delivery report puts a bullish bookend on a year that became a bit bumpy. After CEO Elon Musk followed through on the results from his own Twitter (TWTR) poll by selling 10% of his TSLA holdings, vehicle recall issues emerged again late last week. Earlier in 2021, safety concerns over TSLA's autopilot system prompted the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to conduct an investigation into the self-driving technology, leading to a high-profile recall. This time, the issue stems from faulty hoods and backup cameras, causing TSLA to recall about 500,000 vehicles.
However, negative headlines for TSLA never seem to have much staying power. Today's stunning Q4 delivery report shines the spotlight back on the company's remarkable execution and its momentum heading into 2022. While TSLA has not been completely immune to the chip shortage challenges that have plagued the auto industry, it has circumvented the complications better than most. A key to the company's success has been its ability to develop new firmware to assimilate with chips made by new suppliers.
This type of flexibility and innovation will be paramount in 2022 as TSLA fires up new plants in Austin, TX and in Berlin, Germany. The addition of those facilities should help push annual production towards the 1.5 mln unit mark this year, but Musk has warned that supply chain shortages could persist until 2023. Although he still expects the company to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon, the complexity of launching new plants and new vehicle models in this environment is substantial.
On a related note, CFO Zack Kirkhorn warned during the Q3 earnings conference call in October that automotive gross margin will likely slide lower once the new factories are operational. After expanding by over 280 bps last quarter to 30.5%, this metric exemplifies TSLA's progress in manufacturing efficiency. Since some margin erosion is anticipated and understood, we believe the primary narrative for TSLA in 2022 will be production and delivery growth. That should be good news for TSLA investors because the company has routinely outperformed expectations on those measures. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3862
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, January 03, 2022 - 2:36 pm: |
|
Residential spending paces November increase in construction spending
Total construction spending increased 0.4% month-over-month in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.6%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.2%) in October. Total private construction increased 0.6% month-over-month while total public construction spending decreased 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 9.3%.
The key takeaway from the report is the strength seen in new single-family construction, which is a reflection of the persistently strong housing demand amid a scarcity of supply in the existing home market.
Total residential spending increased 0.9% month-over-month (and increased 16.1% yr/yr) while total nonresidential spending was flat (and up 3.4% yr/yr).
The increase in private construction spending was driven by a 0.9% increase in residential spending, which was paced by a 1.2% increase in new single-family construction. Nonresidential spending was up 0.1%, led by a 0.9% increase in manufacturing spending.
The decrease in public construction spending was paced by a 0.1% decline in nonresidential spending. That decline was led by a 0.8% decline in highway and street spending. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3857
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Sunday, January 02, 2022 - 12:06 pm: |
|
Medical_miracle:2021 year end ki baaga perform sesina etfs emi unnayi.
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etfs-screener?viewName=performance&orderBy=p ercentChangeYtd&orderDir=desc |
Medical_miracle
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Medical_miracle
Post Number: 3178
Registered: 08-2020
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Sunday, January 02, 2022 - 11:24 am: |
|
2021 year end ki baaga perform sesina etfs emi unnayi. |
Entrepreneur
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Entrepreneur
Post Number: 3855
Registered: 05-2011
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Saturday, January 01, 2022 - 5:00 pm: |
|
2021 Year in Review
2021 started on the most contentious of notes in our nation's capital, but like everything else this year, the stock market managed to work its way through it with a bullish bias.
The capacity to do so was fueled by the persistence of low interest rates, the persistence of fiscal stimulus, the persistence of strong earnings growth, and a persistent belief that the worst days of the COVID pandemic are in the rearview mirror for the global economy.
There were some setbacks every now and then, but time and again those setbacks were greeted with buying interest. As the year drew to a close, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new record highs and the Nasdaq Composite was knocking on the same door.
In brief, 2021 was a great year for the stock market, which spun on an axis of rotation between growth and value, small caps and large caps, cyclical sectors and counter-cyclical sectors. In the end, there were no losers at the sector level or the index level.
Making Waves
The S&P 500, powered by the mega-cap monoliths otherwise known as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta Platforms (FB), Tesla (TSLA), and NVIDIA (NVDA), was the biggest winner, gaining 26.9%. We didn't forget Amazon.com (AMZN), but it looked like investors did. AMZN was up just 2.4% for the year.
To be fair, Amazon had some very challenging comparisons to the 2020 pandemic year. The same was true for Walmart (WMT), which was up just 0.4%, and the stay-at-home darlings, otherwise known as Zoom Video (ZM) and Peloton (PTON). They declined 45% and 76%, respectively.
All boats, then, didn't rise with the bullish tide, but the biggest boats did and they towed a lot of tug boats in their wake.
The biggest waves, though, were made by a regatta that was collectively known as the "Reddit crowd." That was a catch-all description for the retail trader who had the means, the platform, and the narrative to drive so-called meme stocks to parabolic levels that were grounded more in crowd psychology than fundamentals.
GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) were the poster children for this movement. The former went from $17.69 on January 8 to as high as $483.00 on January 28. AMC for its part went from $12.08 on May 21 to as high as $72.62 on June 2. GME currently trades at $148.39 while AMC currently trades at $27.20.
2021 will be the year when "meme stocks" became a thing, but there was nothing new about the speculative fervor. That has been around since the stock market was founded more than 200 years ago.
What fueled the speculative fervor was the persistence of low nominal rates, negative real rates, and a Federal Reserve that suggested time and again that it would not be in a hurry to raise rates.
Fed Got What It Wanted... and Then Some
That viewpoint and the passage of additional fiscal stimulus in March, as well as a $1 trillion infrastructure bill in November, drove what at times seemed like an insatiable appetite for stocks. It fueled an explosion of debt issuance, record-setting M&A activity, a flood of IPOs, and the proliferation of SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies).
It drove thematic investing in areas like EVs, cloud computing, and clean energy, a surge in the value of cryptocurrencies and NFTs, and an unyielding belief that there is no alternative (T.I.N.A.) but to own stocks in such a low-yielding world.
It also helped stoke inflation, which is what the Fed wanted but ultimately underestimated as consumer demand for goods roared back, pent-up demand for travel was unleashed, housing demand was at a fevered pitch, and a world still afflicted with COVID couldn't produce enough to meet that demand or deliver enough goods in a timely manner.
A shortage of semiconductors made the automotive sector a poster child in this regard. Used car prices skyrocketed because of a lack of supply of new cars. The supply chain issues, labor shortages, and transportation bottlenecks hit far and wide, however.
The confluence of these problems has registered in the highest consumer inflation rate (6.8%) since 1982 and the Fed's disavowal of the view that inflation pressures would be "transitory."
The Fed's newfound perspective on inflation led to a stark pivot in its messaging as 2021 was coming to a close. The approach now incorporates a plan to speed up the pace at which the Fed tapers its bond purchases, such that those purchases should be complete by March 2022, and an allowance for the possibility of three rate hikes in 2022.
That pivot fostered an increased pace of selling activity in many of the more highly-valued, and unprofitable, growth stocks as 2021 drew to a close -- but it did not derail the broader market nor did the arrival of the Omicron variant in late November.
At first, Omicron triggered a fear that it would be resistant to vaccines and ultimately more virulent than the Delta variant. It soon became apparent, though, that the Omicron variant was producing only mild, cold-like symptoms and that current vaccines, and a booster shot, were proving to be quite effective in preventing severe disease and hospitalization.
The market used this understanding as a basis for a relief rally in December that saw the S&P 500 gain 4.4%, leaving it up 10.7% for the fourth quarter.
A Hallmark Moment
Yes, the stock market did in the fourth quarter what many would consider to be a good year -- but it was that kind of year.
The same rang true for earnings growth. It was one good quarter after the next with actual results comfortably exceeding expectations. Helped by easy comparisons, earnings growth for the S&P 500 was 52.8% in the first quarter and 92.4% in the second quarter. Third quarter earnings growth was 39.9% and fourth quarter earnings growth is projected to be 21.1%, according to FactSet.
Low interest rates, strong earnings growth, and lots of available cash is as good a combination as any for the stock market and investors made the most of it, favoring value stocks when the economic outlook seemed brighter and growth stocks when it didn't. The key, however, is that money rotated within the market most days as opposed to rotating out of it altogether.
That is a hallmark sign of an enduring bull market. Fittingly, the S&P 500 delivered 70 record closing highs in 2021, trailing only 1995 in that record-setting pursuit when there were 77 closing highs.
Powell Back at the Helm
The U.S. economy fared quite well, too. Real GDP growth was 6.3% in the first quarter and 6.7% in the second quarter, but only 2.3% in the third quarter as the effects of the Delta variant and fading fiscal stimulus payments hit home. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter is 7.6%.
The unemployment rate, which began the year at 6.7%, stood at 4.2% in November, and yet there were still a record number of job openings.
A flattening yield curve as 2021 was winding down has fostered concerns that the economy is poised for a noticeable slowdown in 2022 as the fiscal impulse fades, and possibly because the Fed gets too aggressive with its rate hikes in an attempt to rein in inflation. The 2-yr note yield, which started the year at 0.12%, ended the year at 0.73%. The 10-yr note yield, which started the year at 0.92%, ended the year at 1.51%.
Fed Chair Powell will be back at the helm managing the policy approach. He was re-nominated by President Biden and will face a confirmation hearing (which he will pass) in January. Fed Governor Lael Brainard was nominated to be Vice Chair and she, too, is expected to be confirmed for that post.
Something that didn't get passed in 2021 was the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better Act. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) would not provide his necessary support in a split Senate, having objected to its cost, various proposals in the plan, and its potential for making inflation worse.
Democrats are reportedly going to try to re-work the Build Back Better Act in early 2022 to satisfy Senator Manchin, but insomuch as 2021 is concerned, the Build Back Better Act was left in the blueprint phase.
Going Green
Blue is how Democratic leaders might feel in not getting the Build Back Better Act passed before the end of 2021, as they hoped it could be, but with all of the green seen on stock monitors, investors have many reasons to feel happy when the ball drops tonight in Times Square and ushers in 2022.
Things weren't perfect in 2021, yet the stock market's returns in 2021 were every bit as perfect as they have been in some time thanks primarily to the persistence of low interest rates, strong earnings growth, and the resurrection of animal spirits.
To be sure, 2021 will be tough to top in 2022 and perhaps for many years to come. |
|
Cine Talk - Reviews, Gossips, Insider Info etc.