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Kubang
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Kubang
Post Number: 3302
Registered: 09-2011
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 7:52 pm: |
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I don't know where the world is heading to, if I know that fact I don't need to work. I am very well aware of the deficits (in fact triple deficits) that US is facing, that doesn't mean its end of the world. I read the argument for gold and silver extensively and hold about 10% of my portfolio in ABX and XGD. Its an insurance policy. If everything goes down, gold will not stay high, we have seen that in 2008. It may or may not reach $10k, I don't know but making investment decisions based on historical ratios is a mistake. I learned this already in my 15year investment/gambling exp. 
My leason learned (not an advise to anyone here) - don't buy onesided argument, pay attention to the counter argument |
Nbkfan123
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Nbkfan123
Post Number: 177
Registered: 11-2010
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 7:21 pm: |
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kubang where do you think world is heading to.
do you know how many trillions debt US is adding to its debt every 4yrs.at the end of 2016 US would be needing qe4, qe 5 and debt ceiling raised to 30 trillion from current 16 trillion. before tht debt ceiling used to be 4 trillion.
not only US every country in world is devaluing there currency, over period of time precious metals appreciate and paper currency looses its value. |
Lenevo
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Lenevo
Post Number: 690
Registered: 05-2011
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 5:20 pm: |
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vamoo idantha medavulaa thread laga undigaaa  |
Bignole
Mudiripoyina Bewarse
Username: Bignole
Post Number: 20436
Registered: 03-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 5:17 pm: |
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Kubang:Don't wish for $10,000 gold price; you don't want to live in that world. If it ever gets to that point; 75% of the people in this DB will be unemployed.
 Tmmirekkuvaithe Manchamekkali Kani Spot ki Raakudadhu Raa
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Kubang
Kurra Bewarse
Username: Kubang
Post Number: 3300
Registered: 09-2011
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 5:15 pm: |
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Nbkfan123:current gold:silver ratio is 55. in future it willcome down to historical ratio of 16:1
historical data is not an indicator to future performance. I will give you an example: Oil vs NG historical ratio is about 1:6 based on heating value. now it is at 1:40 that doesn't mean NG is going to go lot higher or Oil is going to drop significantly. It boils down to economics 101, demand and supply.
Don't wish for $10,000 gold price; you don't want to live in that world. If it ever gets to that point; 75% of the people in this DB will be unemployed. |
Nbkfan123
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Nbkfan123
Post Number: 176
Registered: 11-2010
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 4:53 pm: |
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current gold:silver ratio is 55. in future it willcome down to historical ratio of 16:1
gold will reach 10000 at some point, silver will beat gold in tht ascent. may be 16:1 to 25:1
which is anywhere btw $400-$625
in short term if qe3 is there silver will go up last 2 times silver is up 50%,80% after qe is announced.
silver will be easy 10 bagger by the end of this decade.
i encourage everyone have 10% silver in thier portfolio. |
Kodi_nbk
Yavvanam Kaatesina Bewarse
Username: Kodi_nbk
Post Number: 9555
Registered: 12-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 1:15 pm: |
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Dobbey:Meerenduku silver meedana antha concentrate chestaaru?
naku kuda same question kasta reply ivvandi
Sahayam Cheyandi Miku Tochinadi http://i46.tinypic.com/a16dld.jpg
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Lenevo
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Lenevo
Post Number: 688
Registered: 05-2011
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 9:39 am: |
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thanks bro, |
Dobbey
Mudiripoyina Bewarse
Username: Dobbey
Post Number: 14336
Registered: 12-2009
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 12:38 am: |
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Meerenduku silver meedana antha concentrate chestaaru?
•••••
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Nbkfan123
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Nbkfan123
Post Number: 175
Registered: 11-2010
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 04, 2012 - 12:01 am: |
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silver over $32 now. |
Nbkfan123
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Nbkfan123
Post Number: 174
Registered: 11-2010
| | Posted on Friday, August 31, 2012 - 11:18 pm: |
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Today's COT report confirmed what I have suspected: TPTB have decided to let silver run for a little while and have increased their short exposure to 38,575 contracts. That is nearly double what is was just 4 weeks ago, triple the levels 6 weeks ago, and nearly quadruple the levels of just 10 weeks ago.
One thing that helps me feel more confident that there is far less speculation than there used to be in the silver markets now, is the fact that 40-50K contracts used to support a price of 48$ in May 2011, but only supported a price of 42$ in Sep 2011, 37$ in Feb 2012, and looks unlikely that we'll get over 34$ for this particular shearing cycle. My interpretation is that the effectiveness of the Cartel shearing cycle is waning...their games are suckering in fewer guileless get-rich-quick-on-silver hopefuls, and the price swings are not as extreme dollar-wise (although they are just as severe percentage-wise).
Don't get suckered. Wait to buy silver until COT's are under 20K again (and falling), and AFTER the price of silver has been hammered repeatedly. There will be plenty of opportunities over the next 3 months with all of the terrible news coming this fall...increased unemployment, election games, etc. Isn't the 3-6 month shearing cycle completely obvious from the graph below? Knowing this is the pattern, all you need to do is buy silver when COTs are low, and hold long-term (if you're a stacker) or sell silver when they're high (if you're a trader). If you followed this 'trading advice', you could now be selling your 26$ silver bought in June 2012 for 20% profits at 31-32$ over just a 3-month period. That is an 80% annualized return, folks.
Think it through folks! Don't pay more for your silver then you need to, and don't get caught buying at the middle or top of the shearing cycle upswing and selling at the bottom or middle of the downswing! You need to do the OPPOSITE to outsmart these manipulative baxxstards! |
Nbkfan123
Pilla Bewarse
Username: Nbkfan123
Post Number: 173
Registered: 11-2010
| | Posted on Sunday, August 26, 2012 - 9:40 pm: |
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Silver is going up back into 30's. $4 rise so far.
dont buy now as silver is going up it may go to $37.
keep your cash ready for next drop in silver.
Some Silver Analysis
======================
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I've been looking at the silver price charts and wanted to see if I could dig a little deeper to predict the medium-term as well as long-term price of silver.
As you can see in the chart above, if you take the start of the silver bull market as Jan 2003, when silver finally departed the 4$ trading-range it had been in for decades, then you can see that the price of silver follows what I will call Bull Bursts, with silver highs hitting a 29% annual appreciation curve and then falling back in price significantly (at least 34%) before running to new highs within 2 to 3 years.
Note that the lows for each Bull Burst have always occurred shortly after hitting the highs (within 9 months), followed by a walk back up to the 29% annual appreciation line. This is a very scary time for silver investors, as the decline is massive in a short amount of time (at least 34%).
Given that this trend has repeated four times already in the past 10 years, it appears that the low for this Bull Burst may already be in ($25.84 back in September 2011) and we should be in a trading range around 30-40$ until at least late fall 2012, or more likely the middle of 2013. Then you will see an explosive run up to around $75-80/oz in 2013, with a dramatic decline to about 50$ shortly thereafter.
The next big run up after that will be in 2015 to about $130/oz, falling back to about 80-90$/oz shortly thereafter.
The next (final?) big run up will be in 2017 or 2018, when silver breaks $200/oz. I believe this psychological barrier will cause the masses to pile in to silver and we will hit $300/oz or higher shortly thereafter. Gold should be around $8000/oz by then, so the GSR will be about 25:1.
This is the point at which I plan to sell at least 75% of my precious metals and move the proceeds into whatever cash-flowing asset class is most undervalued (most likely rental real estate and dividend stocks), and semi-retire.
As I've written here, the price of silver has averaged approximately 29% annual returns since 2001, but the price rise has never been slow and gradual. Instead, there have always been periods which I call 'Bull Bursts', where the price of silver is flat, then starts to rise a little, which generates interest, which causes the price to rise more, until finally silver goes sky-high in an almost parabolic increase to between 200-500% of the initial price at the beginning of the Bull Burst. Finally, the price collapses between 30-50%, there is about 6-9 months of consolidation, and a new Bull Burst begins, starting at a higher low, and ending at an even higher high than the previous Burst. |
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